It didn't do much in 2022 ;) but the decorrelation point is certainly true! With gold we have to be careful and if we are, it's a strategic asset. I always ask how convinced I am of certain conditions: expectations of real treasury yields and the direction of the dollar. Right now, I'm not so sure about the second one. Record short interest on dollar pairs.
When I hear three cycles I feel reminded of my statistics lecture (and of myself the not so clever student). It happened thrice? Don't even bother, that's in the realm of random. Then I ask myself, gold? There's a reason why it's dormant for years and then awakes (pure momentum, a speedy vehicle). If natgas is the widow maker, PM are the wife you spend your life with that you hoped you had divorced a long time ago.
Thank you for your comment! I totally agree with you about Precious Metals (PM). But they certainly provide decorrelation to any portfolio and offer good protection against inflation. I also like to look at the SPX/Gold chart to decide which one to overweight.
Regarding the three cycles, you are right. However, the mechanism of Bitcoin fits perfectly with the magnitude of the logarithmic drawdowns it has experienced.
Some serious analysis, appreciate it
Thank you!!
Nice work
It didn't do much in 2022 ;) but the decorrelation point is certainly true! With gold we have to be careful and if we are, it's a strategic asset. I always ask how convinced I am of certain conditions: expectations of real treasury yields and the direction of the dollar. Right now, I'm not so sure about the second one. Record short interest on dollar pairs.
Like your posts!
When I hear three cycles I feel reminded of my statistics lecture (and of myself the not so clever student). It happened thrice? Don't even bother, that's in the realm of random. Then I ask myself, gold? There's a reason why it's dormant for years and then awakes (pure momentum, a speedy vehicle). If natgas is the widow maker, PM are the wife you spend your life with that you hoped you had divorced a long time ago.
Thank you for your comment! I totally agree with you about Precious Metals (PM). But they certainly provide decorrelation to any portfolio and offer good protection against inflation. I also like to look at the SPX/Gold chart to decide which one to overweight.
Regarding the three cycles, you are right. However, the mechanism of Bitcoin fits perfectly with the magnitude of the logarithmic drawdowns it has experienced.